I clicked on the following title as I googled news surrounding @POTUS Trump. “Poll: Hispanic Support for President Trump Jumps to 45 Percent“, published on breitbart.com. The post received over 900 Facebook shares and more than 600 comments. But I agree with Trump. This is #FAKENews!
Hispanic Support for Trump
Curious, I clicked through and read the article hoping to discover why. I expected to find some legit numbers to support this triumphant statement in support of @POTUS Trump. But, to my amazement, I found another “Battle of the Smart People“.
When people “work the numbers” to illustrate a point they were hoping to make, they often get away with it. I combed through the numbers provided by Zogby Analytics and discovered a paltry sample size of Hispanic participants.
A total of 96 self-proclaimed Hispanic people to be exact.
“I have read and agree to the Terms” is the biggest lie on the web.
Like most people, I click “agree” without actually reading the terms of service whenever downloading a new app or joining something interesting online. So trusting! No one wants to read all that fine print. We hope that it will be okay if we say yes. We read nothing and click “agree”. (Thank you, TOSDR.org)
In the same vein, most people accept what “smart people” say about the data they collect. To cover their backs, Zogby Analytics pollsters provided a disclaimer saying:
Nice to have a back door to wiggle through and escape any scrutiny. But seriously, what does that mean?
Simply Psychology says, “Qualitative data is typically descriptive data, and as such, is harder to analyze than quantitative data”.
So, when someone says they’ve given a qualitative vs quantitative answer, it’s possible they might have strayed into “making stuff up” to suit their own point of view or agenda. Smart people don’t call it a lie. Many euphemisms exist to cover up what British people call “porky pies”.
Someone’s telling porky pies!
“Like fish in the sea, our daily communications teem with lies, so much so that our language distinguishes more words and phrases for lies and lying than it does for truth and truth-telling.
A quick glance at the Thesaurus reveals the following synonyms for falsehood: bamboozle, beguile, betray, bluff, camouflage, cheat, cloak, conceal, cry wolf, disguise, dissemble, dissimulate, delude, double-cross, dupe, exaggerate, fable, fib, fleece, fool, hoodwink, invent, kid, lead astray, mask, misdirect, misinform, mislead, misrepresent, deceive, obfuscate, perjure, posture, prevaricate, pull a fast one, pull the wool over, rip-off, slant, snow, stiff, sting, story, take-in, trick, and varnish.” The lie about lies by Peter Anthony Gales
Out of 897 people who responded to the survey, only 96 identified themselves as Hispanic. From this small sample, the pollster made an inferential leap to paint a rosy picture of how Hispanics view President Trump.
The sample size is too small.
I call that grandiose. An excessively grand statement from such a small sample. An impressive statement, “Hispanic support jumps by 45%”, but based on unimpressive data collection.
If I were to launch a Grandiose Attack using the two random screenshots that I captured from Trump’s visit to Pennsylvania, on the night that he should have attended the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, I would infer that the man is HIspanic, based on his appearance. I could then make an assessment to make up a story about what I think that means.
My Qualitative Assessment of a Guy in the Audience
With regard to this list, please don’t infer that anything I say is the right answer. I wasn’t there. I don’t know the man. I am making it all up. This is my story about a man in the audience.
According to my point of view and experience, I would say that based on the rather blank expression on the face of the (presumably) Hispanic man, sitting behind President Trump, (with a small, red arrow that I inserted, pointing towards him), one or more of the following might or might not be true:
- he doesn’t look very interested.
- he doesn’t understand what Trump is talking about
- he understands, but doesn’t agree
- he understands, but doesn’t care
- he’s star-struck and can’t believe how close he is sitting to the President of the United States
- he’s hungry and planning his next meal
- he’s never demonstrative or passionate anywhere
- but he does have a Trump sign that he waves at the end of the 1:30 minute clip
- maybe he really was listening intently and he’s naturally quiet
- maybe he’s not even Hispanic!
But how would I know? I don’t read TOS and I believe what the Pollsters say. Rock on, enthusiastic, Hispanic Trump supporters!